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AFL - Prospect Watch

Written by Paul Greco

Friday, 07 November 2008

(Editor's Note) Paul Greco, the Managing Editor of Gotham Baseball Magazine is fresh off his assignment to the Arizona Fall League, and shares the details below. He will also be appearing on "Live From Mickey Mantle's " to take questions, analyze and discuss the prospects he saw play this past week. Click here for the link to the show.

The Arizona Fall League (AFL) is filled with rich history. Over 1,600 former AFL players have reached the Major Leagues, including 112 who were on Major League postseason rosters this year. Five MVPs and three CY Young award winners have all walked the fields in Arizona. With the amount of talent on each of the six rosters for the 2008 season, those numbers are sure to increase over time. To understand how the AFL works, here is the basic concept behind the league. Each season during the month of August, the teams get together and hold a positional draft to determine which seven players will represent their teams at the AFL.
The AFL rosters are primarily made up of players who were on a Double or Triple-A roster no later than August 1st. Each team can also elect to send one Single-A player from the minor league organization. The purpose of the AFL is to help prospects hone and showcase their skills to their organization, coaches and scouts.

For the Mets and Yankees prospects that showed up in Arizona at the beginning of October, their individual objectives may have been different, but the message was clear. They each were there to work on one or more facets of their game so sometime down the line they could become an asset to their parent team.

Here are the prospects that represented the Mets and Yankees:

METS
P – Eddie Kunz
P – Bobby Parnell
P – Tobi Stoner
P – Jason Vargas
C – Josh Thole
OF – Shawn Bowman (Left 28 Oct)
2B/OF – Daniel Murphy

YANKEES
P – Phil Hughes
P – Jeff Marquez
P – Humberto Sanchez
P – Kevin Whelan
1B – Juan Miranda
3B – Kevin Russo
OF – Austin Jackson

What the scouts are saying about the New York prospects in the AFL :

Mets

P – Eddie Kunz : Although he's been a closer in the minor leagues, the scouts told me that he is not aggressive enough to be a closer at the major league level. As a matter of fact, two scouts I spoke with went as far to say that Eddie Kunz would be no better than a situational right handed pitcher. The one aspect of Kunz's game all the scouts raved about was his heavy sinking fastball which was clocked consistently in the low 90's.

So far in the AFL, Kunz has been hit hard giving up 10 runs in 10 innings pitched. His control has also been a problem as Kunz has walked seven batters while striking out eight. The former Oregon State University product will have to show up to spring training in shape and he'll have to impress Jerry Manuel and his staff enough to make the big league club in 2009.

P – Bobby Parnell : Off to a great start at the AFL, Bobby Parnell has impressed many of the scouts I spoke with this past weekend. Although I didn't have an opportunity to see him pitch, three scouts I talked to who did seem him pitch were very impressed. Two of those scouts said he has an extremely live Major League fastball and if he can continue to work on his changeup this off-season he could be a decent back of the rotation type guy. The one knock that the three scouts all mentioned was his conditioning. They said right now it would be tough for him to work into the sixth inning.

P – Tobi Stoner : Unlike Eddie Kunz, Tobi Stoner is a guy who pounds the zone. Scouts were saying that Stoner would be a great 7th inning situational pitcher for the Mets. He's a pitcher who showed great control this past season striking out 107 and walking 38 batters while splitting time between the Florida State League and the Eastern League. Some scouts said he's a year away from joining the Mets, but, one scout I spoke to thought he had a chance to see time in 2009.

P – Jason Vargas : Recovering from hip surgery, Jason Vargas looked in mid-season form. The AFL's Pitcher of the Week for Week 3, Vargas looked like a man among boys. Scouts told me that his command and his fast ball looked better than it did prior to his injury. I was also told that because of the way Vargas has been pitching in the AFL, the Mets may not look to retain free-agent Oliver Perez. Vargas is a pitcher many Mets fans should keep an eye on this off season.

C – Josh Thole : I had an opportunity to talk with Josh Thole about his game, and Scouts agree, Thole is known for his bat. A left handed hitting catcher, Thole thrives at the plate. Scouts seem to love his compact swing and his patients at the plate. The downside to Thole is his defense, which he freely acknowledges. This , scouts feel is a clear upside and sign of maturity. Thole is still a few years away, but if he can continue to hit, the Mets will be forced to find a spot on the roster for him.
OF – Shawn Bauman (Left 28 Oct) : For all the talent that Shawn Bauman has, he is best known to the Scouts as a guy who just can't seem to stay healthy. In nine AFL games, Bauman showed the promise that many Scouts called “potential in a can.” At anytime this kid could explode. But when will it all come together for him? Until he can prove that he can stay healthy, Bauman will be a career minor leaguer. However, there are several major league baseball officials who like Bowman a great deal, and at least one front office executive told Gotham Baseball's Mark Healey that “if he's not protected on the 40 man, we'll take him in the Rule V draft.”

2B/OF – Daniel Murphy : What can you really say about this kid that hasn't already been said? Right now he is getting defensive work at 2B with the Peoria Saguaros. When he heads off to the Puerto Rico league later this month he's expected to work out in LF. When I spoke to Saguaros coach Jack Voigt,-- also a New York Mets minor League instructor -- on Murphy's progress, he was very pleased.

“He's a guy that's going to go out and do what ever you ask him to do. He won't care if he's put behind the plate to catch as long as he's one of those nine spots in the lineup card.” The scouts agree. Three I spoke with say it's going to be his stick that gets him into the Mets' everyday lineup. Murphy is going to hit for average, has the potential for 20-25 home runs, and could steal 10-12 bases. His defense is going to the be the issue and Murphy recognizes the fact that he needs work. I'm comparing Murphy to the Chicago Cubs super utility Mark DeRosa. Murphy will be a guy the Mets can plug in at any position.

Yankees

P – Phil Hughes : Yankee fan has heard all the hype they are going to hear about Phil Hughes. They want to know when he'll start to produce? At the AFL, Hughes' fastball looked sharp and his curve ball at times was knee buckling. Only time will tell with Hughes. I spoke to two scouts who told me that he won't be any better than a number three starter in the majors. They also mentioned that until he can gain more stamina his tired arm will be a factor every year.

P – Jeff Marquez : I had the opportunity to watch Jeff Marquez pitch while at the AFL and he was relatively effective. Before the game the scouts I spoke with told me that he has an above average fastball in the low 90's topping out at 93-94, but that his best pitch was his changeup. Now, I'll be honest with you, I'm no scout, but from where I was sitting in the press box, I could tell every time he threw his changeup. The other thing I noticed was that he could command all of his pitches. In the game I saw he pitched four innings, giving up a run on six hits and struck out four batters and walked none.

P – Humberto Sanchez : The former Detroit Tiger blue-chipper is coming back from injuries, and looks it. I didn't see the pop that some scouts were talking about prior to the game, and he didn't look at all comfortable on the mound. When you look at his numbers from the game, Sanchez had 17 strikes on 22 pitches, but the difference between looking at the box score and seeing him in person really stood out.

P – Kevin Whelan : I was very impressed with Kevin Whelan in the one outing I saw him pitch. Scouts who talked about Whelan told me that he'll be a solid situational righty pitcher. So far in the AFL, hitters are batting .167 against Whelan and in the three innings of work I saw, he made batters look foolish. I think he's a year away from the big league club, but when he makes it, he'll be a great addition.

1B – Juan Miranda : I was really hoping to watch Juan Miranda play while at the AFL, but unfortunately he didn't. Scouts talked about him as a player who still needs to grow into his body and develop the power needed to play 1B. He's a guy who has decent plate discipline, but won't hit .300. He'll be a utility guy at best if he makes it to the majors.

3B – Kevin Russo : The Yankees had Kevin Russo working out at third base down at the AFL which I thought was kind of odd. Russo is not a power guy, and seems more suited to play 2B as he did this past year in the minors. Scouts compare Russo to Nick Punto of the Minnesota Twins. He's not a guy that's going to kill the ball, but he'll put it in play.

OF – Austin Jackson : Before I left for the AFL, everyone told me to watch out for Austin Jackson. So I did. I saw him play in two games, and noticed that he has a difficult time handling breaking balls on the outside corner. I wasn't the only one. Pitchers continued to nail the outside corner and time and time again Jackson swung and missed. When I spoke to Jackson about the difficulties he's having at the plate, he acknowledged the fact that he was struggling and that he needed to trust his hands more. No doubt that he has the tools to be a top prospect, but when the Yankees talk trade now, Jackson's name is being brought up, not by other teams, but by the Yankees. Something to be said about that.

Overall my experience covering the AFL for the first time was tremendous. Unlike when I'm in the locker room of a major league ball club, these future major leaguers are more willing to talk openly about their games. The opportunity to talk to 16 of the most talented prospects in the game was great, but for me, to sit in the stands and talk to scouts about these players and the game of baseball was the highlight of my trip. They taught me how to break a hitters swing down and how to look closer at a pitchers balance point. Many of the scouts I spoke with also said that this year's AFL players will be one of the best groups to come out in a long time. From what I saw, I'd have to agree.

Here is more information provided by the AFL:

Roster size is 35 players per team. Each major-league organization is required to provide seven players subject to the following eligibility requirements. All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible provided they are on Triple-A and Double-A rosters no later than August 1. One player below the Double-A level is allowed. Foreign players are allowed as long as the player is not on his native country’s protected player list. No players with more than two years of credited Major League service as of August 31 (including Major League disabled list time) are eligible except a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 draft. To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons. Each team is allotted 20 pitchers, but only 15 are designated “eligible” each game day. No game will exceed 11 innings, the “Robinson Rule.” Games tied after 11 innings will be considered suspended. They will not be made up but statistics will count. The six AFL teams each play a 38-game schedule from October 7-November 22.

As the Arizona Fall League stages its 17th season, the contribution the league has made to major-league baseball is undeniable. Over 50 percent of Fall League players — over 1,600 — have become major leaguers, including 86 players from a year ago who reached the big leagues in 2008. Over 400 former Fall Leaguers dotted MLB rosters in 2008, including eight from the 2007 Fall League who made Opening Day rosters. One hundred twenty seven ex-Fall Leaguers have been named to major league all-star teams. In the past five seasons, the major-league all-star teams included 18 AFL alums in 2004, 23 in 2005, 30 in 2006, 24 in 2007, and a record 36 in 2008. Former Fall Leaguers also have won numerous MLB awards, including 5 MVPs, 3 Cy Youngs, 16 rookies-of-the-year, 8 batting champions, 11 hits leaders, 4 RBI leaders, 2 home-run leaders, 7 runs leaders, 6 stolen base leaders, 3 on-base percentage leaders, 33 Silver Sluggers, and 27 Gold Gloves.

Comments

Add New

Jason Brewer - Great Article

|67.99.43.xxx |2008-11-07 07:37:25

Hey Paul,

Good to see you writing for Gotham. This was a great article, very
well put together. I agree with most of what the scouts said, especially on
Jackson and Hughes. Why are the Yanks all of a sudden look to pair these two
guys up and deal them if they didn't know they aren't who they thought they
were...little Herm Edwards there..LOL.

Keep up the great work, and thanks for
the article.

Jason

Reply | Quote

Brian Joura

|98.26.215.xxx |2008-11-07 10:45:42

What did scouts say about Murphy's defense at second base? That he's going to
be playing LF in Puerto Rico is disappointing because he should be getting as
much time in the infield as he can. He'll be avg to above avg in LF. At 2B he
could be a star.

Reply | Quote

Paul Greco

|70.115.221.xxx |2008-11-07 19:51:56

Brian,

Murph was slow at turning two, and his foot work was not the best. His
arm strength was above average for second baseman, which, like you mentioned
could be a great fit. The Mets will need to make some moves in order for this
work out at 2B. I for one would love to see them move Castillo for this
kid.

--PAUL

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