(Eds. Note) Join us in welcoming Mark Leff, our newest addition, to Gotham Baseball Magazine. He comes to us with a solid background in both print and broadcast journalism, and I hope you'll all make him feel welcome. In addition to working on our various baseball beats, Mark will be popping in on Gotham Sports Radio as well.
To say that the biggest concern for the Mets this offseason is pitching
(especially starting) would be accurate but deceptive. The way the game
is played today, with starters only expected to go six innings, pitching
is the biggest hole for nearly every team.
But the Mets are a club with
championship aspirations, and their pitching staff as assembled now
won't get them there. The trouble in the Mets starting rotation is not a lack of talent, but a lack of reliability. The four starters they have lined up – Orlando Hernandez, Pedro Martinez, Oliver Perez and John Maine – are all nearly untouchable on a good day. But Pedro and El Duque are getting old and injury prone, and Perez has yet to learn how to pitch through pressure.
Unfortunately for the Mets, the free agent market provides few solutions right now. Three starting pitchers have been talked about as the keys this offseason: Carlos Silva, Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez. All three are back-of-the-rotation pitchers, but they'll all command $10 million, simply because of the universal need for starters and lack of any better options. Supply and demand, after all.
Signing any of these three would be a mistake, given the high price. The fact of the matter is, the Mets may be stuck gritting their teeth and praying for health in 2008. But there is an option that has slipped under the radar of most teams: Jason Jennings. Jennings struggled in 2007 with injuries, which is why he's been mostly ignored so far this winter. He has never been stellar, but his high career ERA somewhat belies him. Keep in mind, he pitched most of his career in the hitters paradise that is Coors Field. He'll get more money than he's worth in all likelihood, but probably less than Silva or Lohse. But the biggest advantage for the Mets that Jennings brings is his age. The Mets starting pitching consists of players who are either too old or too young. Jennings is 29. If he can keep himself healthy, he'll be the best option for the Mets in 2008.
I recognize that signing Jennings, who may or may not be fully healed, adds another element of unreliability to a starting staff already full of question marks. But the options for the Mets are limited. A healthy Jennings at the right age could add an element of stability. It'll be a matter of keeping fingers crossed in New York.
The good news for the Mets is that the future is right under their noses. Mike Pelfrey had a few questionable Major League starts in 2007, but he's still growing. The action on his pitches demonstrates tremendous potential. He should get a few spot starts next year, or even be the first replacement for an injured starter.
There is another option that hasn't been discussed. Aaron Heilman has been nothing but reliable in the bullpen, but he has the talent to be a great starter. The Mets should take him out of the setup role, giving him the opportunity to make spot starts. He needs to be groomed to the position of starting pitcher, where he will thrive if given the chance.
Moving Heilman leaves the setup spot open, but the Mets can fill that spot with Feliciano. Some question the wisdom of using a lefty in both the setup and closing roles, but I maintain that the best two pitchers should have those roles, regardless of which hand they throw with. If the Mets don't want to put Feliciano in the 8th inning, there are multiple right-handed free agents the Mets could sign. Scott Linebrink, LaTroy Hawkins, Antonio Alfonseca and Bob Wickman are all candidates. Eddie Guardado and Ron Mahay are strong left-handed options, and the Mets could certainly stand to bolster their lefty relief. Wagner and Feliciano are dangerous, but Schoenweis is a joke and Willie Collazo has yet to prove himself. Mahay is being chased by multiple teams like a squirrel chased by mad dogs, but the Mets ought to be in that hunt and offer Mahay substantial money. He was nothing short of excellent for Atlanta, compiling a 2.55 ERA in 2007. Having that reliability from the left side, mixed with one of the good righty free agents, would add tremendously to the Mets bullpen.
The truth about the Mets pen, though, is that it has plenty of talent in it already. It could stand to be improved, but the real problem last year was mismanagement. The lack of defined roles for anyone but Heilman and Wagner was detrimental to their performance. And Willie Randolph's overuse of Mota and underuse of Feliciano costs the Mets many games this season. Even without adding new free agents, the Mets bullpen has the potential to perform way better in 2008 than in 2007. It just needs to be managed better.
The Mets will likely look for a quick fix this winter, but they won't find it. What they might find if they look in the right places is a chance for small but effective changes in their pitching staff. For 2008, the Mets may be stuck hoping for the best in a questionable situation.
(Eds. Note) 
stuck gritting their teeth and praying for health in 2008. But there is an option that has slipped under the radar of most teams: Jason Jennings. Jennings struggled in 2007 with injuries, which is why he's been mostly ignored so far this winter. He has never been stellar, but his high career ERA somewhat belies him. Keep in mind, he pitched most of his career in the hitters paradise that is Coors Field. He'll get more money than he's worth in all likelihood, but probably less than Silva or Lohse. But the biggest advantage for the Mets that Jennings brings is his age. The Mets starting pitching consists of players who are either too old or too young. Jennings is 29. If he can keep himself healthy, he'll be the best option for the Mets in 2008.