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Is Brad Holt Another Joba? |
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Written by Eric Stashin
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Thursday, 06 November 2008 |
Two years ago, the New York Yankees used their compensation pick after
the first round to select Joba Chamberlain. Despite his
season-shortening arm trouibles and off-season brush with the law,
there is little doubt that he posses one of the best young arms in all
of baseball. In 2008, the Mets had a compensatory pick of their own,
selecting a pitcher named Brad Holt. Could he become the Mets' own
Joba?
Now, I don’t mean that one will be hearing the term “Holt Rules” bandied about Citi Field in 2009, complete with t-shirts. But it would appear, that after his first season as a professional, that several teams could be regretting passing on Holt, much like they do Chamberlain. Remember, Chamberlain fell to the Yankees at pick #41.
Holt, a right-hander out of UNC-Wilmington, didn’t last quite as long as Chamberlain, but he was there for the taking at #33. In fact, even the Mets made two picks before him (Ike Davis and Reese Havens), telling me that they may not have even known what they were getting.
He played for the Brooklyn Cyclones at Single A after being drafted and was impressive. He made 14 starts (72.1 innings) going 5-3 with a stellar 1.87 ERA. Factor in 96 strikeouts (11.94 K/9) vs. 33 walks (4.11 BB/9) and there just isn’t much not to like in his numbers. Even the hits (43) and HR (3) allowed are positives.
The one thing you can point to is his control, which was also questioned during his college career. His BB/9 was certainly a bit on the high side. As he moves on to the upper levels of the minors that is certainly something that everyone is going to have to keep an eye on.
I can’t make a direct comparison of his first professional season to Chamberlain, as Joba didn’t pitch until 2007 (having been drafted in ’06). At Single A, however, he went 4-0 with a 2.03 ERA over 40.0 innings. He struck out 51 (11.48 K/9) and walked 11 (2.48 BB/9). He was tremendous, but how much better was he then Holt?
Chamberlain’s meteoric rise is well known, making his way to the majors in that first professional season. Is it possible that Holt, pitching the full season in 2009, could reach the majors that quickly as well? At 22-years old, there is no reason to think that he couldn’t.
Prior to the 2007 college season, Baseball America described Holt’s repertoire as follows:
“90-92 mph fastball that touches 94, a pair of promising breaking balls and a changeup with split-finger action”
That type of stuff certainly could translate as he moves up to Double A, Triple A and the majors. Just how high he could rise is anyone’s guess, though having thrown 165.2 innings between college and the minor leagues, it wouldn’t appear that an inning limit should not be an issue.
That certainly opens the door for him to make the quick ascent to Citi Field. The Mets have been awfully careful with their prospects in the past, though in recent years they have certainly strayed from that trend. After being selected in the first round of the 2005 draft, Mike Pelfrey made his major league debut in 2006 (as well as allowing him to throw 200.2 innings last season, an increase of nearly 50 innings). Joe Smith, the Mets third round pick in 2006, broke camp with the team in 2007.
The Mets are in a win now mentality, and they’ve shown it time and time again. I don’t see them suddenly putting the kid gloves on with Holt and fully expect him to make his major league debut before 2009 comes to a close.
He’s not going to be Chamberlain, it wouldn’t be fair to think that he will. He has control problems that are going to hurt him, at least a little bit, and cost him from being as dominating as Joba has already proven capable. Still, depending on what the off-season brings, his arm could prove integral down the stretch for the Mets. He’s certainly a youngster that all Met fans should be anxiously waiting to land in Flushing.
Eric Stashin is a new contributor to Gotham Baseball. You can read more of his work at
RotoProfessor.com
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Last Updated ( Wednesday, 26 November 2008 )
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