|
Top Five NYM Stories Of The Year |
|
|
|
|
Written by Patrick DiCaprio
|
|
Monday, 10 November 2008 |
There were lots of memorable – and not so much -- stories here for the
Metropolitans in 2008, as they traveled up and then down the NL East,
as the bullpen got shellacked on a daily basis. Obviously, the biggest
story in “real” baseball for the Mets was the continued implosion of
the bullpen. But for Fantasy Baseball purposes that story really
doesn’t have a lot of value, as fun as it is to watch in a Greg Norman
type of way.
1. Mike Pelfrey’s Ascension - There isn’t an analyst anywhere that thought Mike Pelfrey would be the Mets’ second best pitcher, or that he would be one of the best pitchers overall. On Aug. 25, he won his 13th game, but failed to register a win in any of his last six starts. He didn't pitch badly over that stretch, and his overall record (13-11, 3.70 ERA) was a significant upgrade from his 2-8, 6.88 start to the season. That said, he is probably going to make my All-Regression team next year as he has a 3.72 ERA versus a 4.65 xERA and a K/BB rate below 2.0, the benchmark we like for a starting pitcher.
Enjoy it while it lasts but don’t expect it to continue to next year.
2. Carlos’ Delgado’s Second Half Resurgence - This is the second straight year that Delgado has been far better in the second half. He was the best HR and RBI guy in the league in the last two months and he was very unlucky, with a .299 xBA versus a .259 actual batting average. On the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Show a few weeks ago, Brian Joura argued (speculated?) that the Mets would pick up Delgado’s option for next year, and now they have. Whether or not he plays for the Mets in 2009 remains to be seen.
3. The Continued Excellence of David Wright - One could make a very credible argument that David Wright is already the best Met hitter ever. However, Wright’s value has taken a bit of a dip this year as he only has 14 steals so far after a 30 steal season in 2007. This is mostly a function of him taking fewer opportunities to steal, as he is only taking 12% of his opportunities this year. I thought he would be the most valuable fantasy player in the game, and though that hasn’t occurred he has still been a consistent run producer with first round value. Brian Joura is our resident Met expert and maybe we will get him to talk about Wright in the pantheon of Metdom.
4. Jose Reyes’ Power - A little recognized story this season was the development (return?) of Jose Reyes’ power. Though he hits only 33% of his balls in the air, this is the first season in which his linear weighted power index has been above average with a 104 figure. Even in 2006, when he hit 19 HR, he was lucky in his HR/FB percentage as his LWP was only 98. If this power increase continues into next year as he enters his age 26 season then watch out. He not only may be the number one fantasy player in 2009 he will vault himself into the conversation with Wright as the best Met. It seems realistic to suggest that he may be a front runner for the top fantasy spot in 2009.
5. Fernando Tatis - Another guy taken off the scrap heap, he has been an even bigger surprise than Pelfrey. Before he separated his shoulder in Sept., he was on pace, were it a full season, to be a 20-80-.300 player and with a .292 xBA. It is often said that once a player has a skill he owns it and it can reappear at any time. He may be exhibit number one for this tenet. A combo of Ryan Church and Fernando Tatis would make a pretty valuable outfielder. Don’t count on Tatis being this good next year, as his season is essentially composed of a huge July and not much else. He has saved his career as even if he drops off next year, the Mets will still be hoping for another July.
Honorable Mention - Oliver Perez, the implosion of the pen, and the continued decline of Carlos Beltran’s slugging.
|
|
Last Updated ( Monday, 10 November 2008 )
|