The fight over Johan Santana is now under way. The Twins have made
specific requests of the two main competitors, namely the Yankees and
the Red Sox. Specifically, the Twins want Hughes, Melky Cabrera (pictured, left) and a
prospect or two from the Yanks, and Jacoby Ellsbury and either Clay
Buchholz or Jon Lester from the Sox.
But, as I recently said on my blog at offinlefffield.com, “it won’t end there. Twins GM Bill Smith will force the Yankees and Red Sox into a war of one-upmanship and turn a relatively small package into a large one.”
There are other teams involved in the Santana hunt, including the Mets, the Angels and the Mariners. But when you force the Red Sox and the Yankees to compete against each other, you have an all out battle. Both teams have the depth to trade prospects and the money to extend Santana’s contract, moreso than any of the other bidders, so it’s a safe bet that he’ll end up with one of the two. Most of the baseball world expects to see Santana in pinstripes in 2008, partially because the Yankees have a greater need for starting pitching than do the Red Sox. But I see the Red Sox as the favorite in the race.
An offer of Buchholz and Ellsbury is more appealing than Cabrera and Hughes. Buchholz has roughly the same value as Hughes, and Ellsbury is far better than Cabrera. The Red Sox have claimed that Ellsbury is off the market, but how long will that last? When the heart of the bidding war rolls around, Ellsbury will end up on the block. Boston still has a centerfielder in Coco Crisp, and while Crisp may not be Ellsbury, putting him in center is worth having Santana. If the Red Sox can land the stud lefty, they’ll have an outright stranglehold on starting pitching, and they’ll have cheated the Yankees out of their prize.
In order to one-up Boston, the Yanks may have to make Joba Chamberlain available, and that simply won’t happen. Chamberlain has too much value for the Bombers, as either the heir apparent to Mariano Rivera or a tremendous power starter. The Yanks showed last year just how much they value Joba as they handled him with gloves on, not allowing him to pitch in back-to-back games. If it comes to trading Joba, the Yankees will likely bite the bullet and let him go to Boston.
Bill Smith may also have another trick up his sleeve. He could hold onto Santana until late next season, and wait until the Yankees and Red Sox are in the heart of a pennant race before trading Santana. That would most likely up the ante. By then, the waters may have changed and the Yankees may be able to land him. But I wouldn’t count on spotting Santana in the Bronx at the start of the 2008 season.
Even if the Yankees can’t get Santana, they have to be pleased with the way their future looks. If they hold on to what they have now, then in a few years, they’ll have Wang as a veteran, and Chamberlain, Hughes and Kennedy at the start of their prime. That’s a great set of four. What the Yankees have brewing now is similar to what they had in the mid-’90s, when they won championships with homegrown talent. Since the end of their dynasty, the Yankees have not relied as much on talent from their own system. Now they have what they need to build another great team, and Cashman no doubt sees that. Building from the inside creates an atmosphere of team pride, which was a major factor in the most recent Yanks dynasty, and the young players coming up will feel that pride as they become the heart of a new era of Yankee stars. The Yankees can’t start dealing their prime youth for players from the outside for that very reason, and they know it. Would it be worth losing Hughes for Santana? Probably. Joba Chamberlain? No. And that’s why Boston will have the upper hand in these trade talks.
There may be new twists and turns over the next few weeks as the trade talks progress. The Twins have always prided themselves on being able to spot talent at the young level, which is why the Mets were able to get Luis Castillo for peanuts last year. The Yankees have some good minor league prospects, including Alan Horne and Jose Tabata. Throwing multiple minor leaguers into the package could tip the scale, but the Red Sox could counter. The Twins are going to milk this situation for every penny it’s worth, forcing the two teams to go to their limits. The bottom line is, the talks won’t end with Melky and Hughes. The Yankees won’t be snagging a two-time Cy Young winner for that meager package.
The fight over Johan Santana is now under way. The Twins have made
specific requests of the two main competitors, namely the Yankees and
the Red Sox. Specifically, the Twins want Hughes, Melky Cabrera (pictured, left) and a
prospect or two from the Yanks, and Jacoby Ellsbury and either Clay
Buchholz or Jon Lester from the Sox.
But, as I recently said on my blog at 