The Mets have been shopping their prospects all over the majors in
search of the elusive ace, and the most recent stop on their tour
(after departing Minnesota and Oakland) is Baltimore. The Orioles have
been looking to trade their stud lefty Erik Bedard, and fortunately for
the Mets, there’s little to no chance the O’s will want to trade in the
division.
That rules out the Yankees or the Red Sox. As I type this, the latest news is that the Dodgers are close to a deal with the Orioles, but just a few hours ago the Mets were favored, according to all accounts. So for all anyone knows, the Mets may be right back in the race by the time this is published. The tradewinds are unpredictable.
The Mets world has been thrilled about the idea of Bedard in blue and orange, and for good reason. Last year, Bedard struck out 221 batters in 182 innings, while putting up a 3.16 ERA. His WHIP was an incredible 1.09. And that’s pitching in the American League, and in Camden Yards, a hitters ballpark. If Bedard were to pitch in the National League, in a pitchers park (such as Shea ), he’d be outright dominant and perhaps even flirt with 20 wins.
That is, if he can stay healthy.
The upside for Bedard is tremendous, but in all the trade talks, no mention has been made of his downside. If the Mets can get their hands on him, they should do it and not look back. But Bedard carries with him more risks than any of the other big name pitchers that are on the market.
He’s injury prone
Bedard’s major league debut was a moment the Orioles had looked forward to. They knew he had tremendous potential and talent. Then he had an elbow ligament injury and needed surgery. He spent most of 2003 in rehab, but returned in 2004 with some success. Then after a stellar start to 2005, he went down for two months with a sprained knee, and struggled when he returned. In 2007, as the season wound down, Bedard was making a run at the AL Cy Young, and would’ve been closer if his season hadn’t ended in late August due to a strained oblique muscle.
He’ll be 29 years old before next season
Now that doesn’t sound old at all. It sounds relatively young, in fact. But in most cases, a player is already seasoned and proven by age 29. Bedard is just starting to find his groove as a pitcher over the last two years. While 2006 was impressive and 2007 was downright phenomenal for the lefty, he has never before put up comparable numbers. An optimist can point out that Bedard is just getting better as his career rolls along. But how certain can you be if a player doesn’t have a proven track record when he’s entering what should be the second half of his career? How many more years like 2007 does Bedard have in his arm? At this point, it’s impossible to say for certain.
He wants to be a free agent as soon as he can
Bedard has two years left on his contract, and naturally, any team that trades for him will hope to extend his contract. But Bedard has made it clear that he wants to test the waters of free agency. And who can blame him? With the climate of baseball being what it is, starters who aren’t half as good as he is command $10 million. As a free agent, he could sign for as much as $25 million a year. Thus, he’s made it clear that he won’t extend his contract. I don’t know how steadfast he is in that promise, but it looks to be a substantial obstacle.
All of this means that if the Mets make the deal with Baltimore, they risk trading away their prime prospects, as well as some players already integrated into the team (Heilman has been mentioned in the rumors), for a short rental who could be out for the season after his third start. Unlikely, but distinctly possible. The Mets need an ace on their staff, but Bedard presents a tremendous risk. Is it a risk the Mets should take? Absolutely. But if you’re a Mets fan and the Mets land Bedard, cross your fingers and hope it doesn’t backfire.
The Mets have been shopping their prospects all over the majors in
search of the elusive ace, and the most recent stop on their tour
(after departing Minnesota and Oakland) is Baltimore. The Orioles have
been looking to trade their stud lefty Erik Bedard, and fortunately for
the Mets, there’s little to no chance the O’s will want to trade in the
division.
That rules out the Yankees or the Red Sox. As I type this, the latest news is that the Dodgers are close to a deal with the Orioles, but just a few hours ago the Mets were favored, according to all accounts. So for all anyone knows, the Mets may be right back in the race by the time this is published. The tradewinds are unpredictable.