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Written by Scott Drattell
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Thursday, 05 June 2008 |
 As Joba Chamberlain walked off the mound in the third inning of his
first big league start, he shrugged his head from side-to-side and
kicked the dirt down the first-base line in frustration. The majority
of Yankee Stadium, however, still rose to its feet and cheered Joba off. It would be irresponsible to try to argue that Joba’s struggles in his
first start – he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and walked four batters
while allowing one earned run – are proof that moving him from the
bullpen to the rotation was the wrong move.
But the fact is, it was the wrong move. Not because Joba struggled with his control and had to leave before he or anyone else expected, nor even because the mid-season adjustment from reliever to starter will be extremely difficult. No, the reason is simple: Joba is more valuable to the Yankees coming out of the bullpen than in the starting rotation.
Here’s why:
Relievers are just as important as starters
Traditional thinking has dictated that a good starter is always better than a good reliever. That may have been true in the past, when starters routinely threw complete games and made having a good bullpen irrelevant, but today few starters pitch deeper than the sixth inning.
The reason – more and more money being invested in arms means having to pay closer attention to pitch counts and the like – is less important than the result: relievers are now just as, if not more, important than starters. Just look at the Mets during the 2006 NLCS. The four starters they trotted out against the Cards? An above-average Tom Glavine, rookie John Maine, Steve Trachsel, and Oliver Perez. Trachsel was so abysmal in Game 3 the Mets seemed ecstatic to use a minor injury to him as an excuse to give the always shaky Perez the nod in Game 7.
Yet the Mets, as we all remember, were a Carlos Beltran flick of the wrist away from winning the series. Why? Because their bullpen was fantastic. Billy Wagner, Chad Bradford, Guillermo Mota, Pedro Feliciano, and a pre-Game 7 ninth inning Aaron Heilman kept the Mets in the series. They sported the lowest bullpen ERA (3.28) and opponents’ batting average (.239) in the NL during the regular season and followed suit in the playoffs.
The Mets’ bullpen has struggled mightily since then (just ask Mota and Heilman). Not coincidentally, so have the Mets.
Joba is much more than just a set-up man
A good set-up man can enter a game in the 7th with runners on and get out of a jam and pitch the 8th without blowing the lead. No one expects a set-up man to be blowing hitters away and dominating like a closer.
Of course, that’s exactly what Joba has done in his time so far with the Yankees. In 42 games as a reliver, he is 3-2 with a 1.32 ERA and 64 K in 47 2/3 innings. Just about every closer in the majors would kill for those numbers, let alone a set-up man.
Which is why Joba can’t be thought of as a set-up man. He essentially served as a second closer for the Yankees, effectively making any close game a 7-inning game because teams trailing heading into the 8th had almost no chance of scoring against him and Mariano Rivera.
The Astros thrived with a similar system a few years back, pitching Brad Lidge in the 7th, Octavio Dotel in the 8th, and Billy Wagner in the 9th. Teams trailing at the midpoint of the game often felt like they had to score before the 7th or even 6th because once the bullpen reached Lidge they had little chance of scraping together any offense.
Just ask the Yankees. On June 11, 2003 Lidge pitched the 6th and 7th innings, Dotel the 8th, and Wagner the 9th of a five-man Astros’ no-hitter at Yankee Stadium.
And none of those three (yes, even Wagner) has ever been as good as Joba.
Joba is an unknown commodity as a starter
Joba was a starter his entire life, up until the Yankees called him up last year. And his numbers as a starter in the minors were fantastic: 15 starts, 9-2, 2.56 ERA, 125 K in 84 1/3 innings.
But that’s no guarantee of success. Just take a look at the other 2/3 of Generation Trey; both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are on the DL after painful starts, as they sport a 9.00 ERA and 7.41 ERA respectively.
No one expects Joba to struggle in the same way, but who’s to say he won’t? After all, that’s why games are played are on the diamond and not on paper. And the reality is Joba could end up being the best pitcher in baseball one day, but he could also end up being a huge disappointment as a starter. Meanwhile, we all know what Joba can do as a reliever, and it’s nothing short of mesmerizing.
The Yankees, though, have decided to follow the old saying from Mike McD in Rounders: “You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle…but you can’t win much either.” The only difference is, they’ve traded a royal flush for two of a kind. That two of a kind might still win, but you can’t lose with a royal flush.
Mariano Rivera has to retire eventually
Rivera has been so good for so long that it’s easy for the Yankees to forget what it’s like have a shaky closer. But any Mets fan can attest that seeing Armando Benitez or Braden Looper trot out to the mound to try to save a game is one of the worst feelings in the world.
Now, you can certainly argue that finding a replacement at closer will be easier for the Yankees than finding a starter with a ceiling as high as Joba’s. But having a great closer may very well be more important than having a great starter. Sure, a closer can’t close any games if a team’s starters never give it any leads. But the Yankees have the offense to overcome any deficit (despite their struggles this year). And when the game’s on the line, no starter is going to be out there to try and end it.
So keeping Joba in the bullpen means that when Rivera does retire, he can just slide into the closer’s role. Again, the Astros are the perfect example. Wagner left for Philadelphia and they simply slid Dotel into the closer role and Lidge into the 8th inning role. When Dotel proved he couldn’t hack it as a closer, Lidge took over and became one of the most dominant closers on the planet.
Joba should be doing the same when Rivera retires, but instead the Yankees will be forced to look externally for a replacement, and it won’t be nearly as easy as when John Wetteland departed for Texas more than a decade ago.
And even if they can find such a replacement, will Joba be able to get a lead to him every fifth day? Those who stood and cheered him after a disappointing first start certainly think so. But they’re only fooling themselves.The Joba Fools
As Joba Chamberlain walked off the mound in the third inning of his first big league start, he shrugged his head from side-to-side and kicked the dirt down the first-base line in frustration. The majority of Yankee Stadium, however, still rose to its feet and cheered Joba off.
It would be irresponsible to try to argue that Joba’s struggles in his first start – he lasted just 2 1/3 innings and walked four batters while allowing one earned run – are proof that moving him from the bullpen to the rotation was the wrong move.
But the fact is, it was the wrong move. Not because Joba struggled with his control and had to leave before he or anyone else expected, nor even because the mid-season adjustment from reliever to starter will be extremely difficult. No, the reason is simple: Joba is more valuable to the Yankees coming out of the bullpen than in the starting rotation.
Here’s why:
Relievers are just as important as starters
Traditional thinking has dictated that a good starter is always better than a good reliever. That may have been true in the past, when starters routinely threw complete games and made having a good bullpen irrelevant, but today few starters pitch deeper than the sixth inning.
The reason – more and more money being invested in arms means having to pay closer attention to pitch counts and the like – is less important than the result: relievers are now just as, if not more, important than starters. Just look at the Mets during the 2006 NLCS. The four starters they trotted out against the Cards? An above-average Tom Glavine, rookie John Maine, Steve Trachsel, and Oliver Perez. Trachsel was so abysmal in Game 3 the Mets seemed ecstatic to use a minor injury to him as an excuse to give the always shaky Perez the nod in Game 7.
Yet the Mets, as we all remember, were a Carlos Beltran flick of the wrist away from winning the series. Why? Because their bullpen was fantastic. Billy Wagner, Chad Bradford, Guillermo Mota, Pedro Feliciano, and a pre-Game 7 ninth inning Aaron Heilman kept the Mets in the series. They sported the lowest bullpen ERA (3.28) and opponents’ batting average (.239) in the NL during the regular season and followed suit in the playoffs.
The Mets’ bullpen has struggled mightily since then (just ask Mota and Heilman). Not coincidentally, so have the Mets.
Joba is much more than just a set-up man
A good set-up man can enter a game in the 7th with runners on and get out of a jam and pitch the 8th without blowing the lead. No one expects a set-up man to be blowing hitters away and dominating like a closer.
Of course, that’s exactly what Joba has done in his time so far with the Yankees. In 42 games as a reliver, he is 3-2 with a 1.32 ERA and 64 K in 47 2/3 innings. Just about every closer in the majors would kill for those numbers, let alone a set-up man.
Which is why Joba can’t be thought of as a set-up man. He essentially served as a second closer for the Yankees, effectively making any close game a 7-inning game because teams trailing heading into the 8th had almost no chance of scoring against him and Mariano Rivera.
The Astros thrived with a similar system a few years back, pitching Brad Lidge in the 7th, Octavio Dotel in the 8th, and Billy Wagner in the 9th. Teams trailing at the midpoint of the game often felt like they had to score before the 7th or even 6th because once the bullpen reached Lidge they had little chance of scraping together any offense.
Just ask the Yankees. On June 11, 2003 Lidge pitched the 6th and 7th innings, Dotel the 8th, and Wagner the 9th of a five-man Astros’ no-hitter at Yankee Stadium.
And none of those three (yes, even Wagner) has ever been as good as Joba.
Joba is an unknown commodity as a starter
Joba was a starter his entire life, up until the Yankees called him up last year. And his numbers as a starter in the minors were fantastic: 15 starts, 9-2, 2.56 ERA, 125 K in 84 1/3 innings.
But that’s no guarantee of success. Just take a look at the other 2/3 of Generation Trey; both Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy are on the DL after painful starts, as they sport a 9.00 ERA and 7.41 ERA respectively.
No one expects Joba to struggle in the same way, but who’s to say he won’t? After all, that’s why games are played are on the diamond and not on paper. And the reality is Joba could end up being the best pitcher in baseball one day, but he could also end up being a huge disappointment as a starter. Meanwhile, we all know what Joba can do as a reliever, and it’s nothing short of mesmerizing.
The Yankees, though, have decided to follow the old saying from Mike McD in Rounders: “You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle…but you can’t win much either.” The only difference is, they’ve traded a royal flush for two of a kind. That two of a kind might still win, but you can’t lose with a royal flush.
Mariano Rivera has to retire eventually
Rivera has been so good for so long that it’s easy for the Yankees to forget what it’s like have a shaky closer. But any Mets fan can attest that seeing Armando Benitez or Braden Looper trot out to the mound to try to save a game is one of the worst feelings in the world.
Now, you can certainly argue that finding a replacement at closer will be easier for the Yankees than finding a starter with a ceiling as high as Joba’s. But having a great closer may very well be more important than having a great starter. Sure, a closer can’t close any games if a team’s starters never give it any leads. But the Yankees have the offense to overcome any deficit (despite their struggles this year). And when the game’s on the line, no starter is going to be out there to try and end it.
So keeping Joba in the bullpen means that when Rivera does retire, he can just slide into the closer’s role. Again, the Astros are the perfect example. Wagner left for Philadelphia and they simply slid Dotel into the closer role and Lidge into the 8th inning role. When Dotel proved he couldn’t hack it as a closer, Lidge took over and became one of the most dominant closers on the planet.
Joba should be doing the same when Rivera retires, but instead the Yankees will be forced to look externally for a replacement, and it won’t be nearly as easy as when John Wetteland departed for Texas more than a decade ago.
And even if they can find such a replacement, will Joba be able to get a lead to him every fifth day? Those who stood and cheered him after a disappointing first start certainly think so. But they’re only fooling themselves.
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Last Updated ( Thursday, 05 June 2008 )
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