The Joba debate is in full swing. Phil Hughes’ rib injury, which will
likely keep him out until July, and the struggles of Ian Kennedy and
Mike Mussina have intensified the discussion over when to move Joba
Chamberlain (pictured, left and below / B. Menzel) to the starting rotation.
Hank Steinbrenner, endowed with as little cool as his father, has been a constant advocate of Chamberlain’s move to the starting rotation. He told the AP Friday night, "I'm very disappointed with the way the season has gone, period," after the Yanks improved to 15-16 on the year with a 5-1 win over Seattle.
For the moment, Steinbrenner seems content to “stick with the plan” and move Chamberlain slowly to the rotation. Rumors have circulated that this change will occur shortly after the all-star break, and a debate has grown as to where Chamberlain offers the most value to the Yankees. Some, like WFAN’s Evan Roberts, see the late game combination of Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera as too perfect to break up and also view Chamberlain as the ideal heir apparent to Mariano. Others cite the limit of Chamberlain’s contribution as a set-up man—where he will only pitch around 80 innings in a season—and calculate the simple math: the Yankees best young pitcher would pitch the most innings as a starter.
Assuming that Chamberlain would adapt reasonably well to the starting rotation (he has four pitches and a strong arm), the question of which role is most valuable is intriguing. Many analysts argue that it is easier to find a capable starting pitcher than a capable set-up man, nonetheless an impeccable one like Chamberlain. For the move to benefit the Yankees this season, Chamberlain’s value over a replacement starting pitcher would have to exceed the loss of value the Yankees receive from a replacement set-up man. Since whomever the Yankees would use to replace Chamberlain in either case (Kyle Farnsworth as a set-up man, for instance) probably could not be called better than average, these are fair parameters to judge against.
The Yankees would likely limit Chamberlain to five or six innings an outing to protect his arm. Last season, the average ERA for starting pitchers was about 4.5. The average ERA for MLB bullpens was 4.17. Even after giving up three earned runs in one inning Tuesday night, Chamberlain has still given up just six earned runs in 36.1 innings as a reliever in his career, good for a 1.45 ERA. This small sample size might not be indicative of his future success, but it is his current body of work. This is a -2.72 difference from the average reliever—his value over the average replacement player. Chamberlain would likely pitch twice as many innings as a starter than in the bullpen, so his difference over an average starter would have to be greater than half of his value over an average reliever (-1.36). Thus, Chamberlain would have to have an ERA under 3.2 (and suddenly become Johan Santana) to equal his value as a reliever.
There are both flaws in this assumption (Chamberlain might not maintain his amazing statistics as a reliever and this mathematical formula does not include the most comprehensive factors possible) and also intangible positives to Chamberlain’s presence as a starting pitcher. He would take pressure off of Wang and Pettite at the top of the rotation and lessen the stress on Hughes and Kennedy. Starting pitchers are more valuable than relievers in the post-season. However, there are also risks involved in moving Chamberlain from his role mid-season. He is a very young pitcher, and it would not be surprising to see him be simply average or worse as a starter this year. When Hughes, Kennedy or even Mussina do come around, it would help their confidence amazingly to notch wins because of the safety net Chamberlain and Rivera supply at the back of the bullpen, and their improvements could be derailed by blown saves by a shaky bullpen. Steinbrenner touts that the Yankees brass agrees that Chamberlain to the rotation this season is a no-brainer. While he should make the move eventually, the Gotham’s greatest should utilize their craniums and make sure that they are receiving the most value this season.
The Joba debate is in full swing. Phil Hughes’ rib injury, which will
likely keep him out until July, and the struggles of Ian Kennedy and
Mike Mussina have intensified the discussion over when to move Joba
Chamberlain (pictured, left and below / B. Menzel) to the starting rotation.
strong arm), the question of which role is most valuable is intriguing. Many analysts argue that it is easier to find a capable starting pitcher than a capable set-up man, nonetheless an impeccable one like Chamberlain. For the move to benefit the Yankees this season, Chamberlain’s value over a replacement starting pitcher would have to exceed the loss of value the Yankees receive from a replacement set-up man. Since whomever the Yankees would use to replace Chamberlain in either case (Kyle Farnsworth as a set-up man, for instance) probably could not be called better than average, these are fair parameters to judge against.
